| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 153 | 35.11 | 55.09 | 55.56 | 56.47 | 87.33 | 148.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 54.7% | 40.5% | 590.9% | 4% | 4% | 16,757 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | 0% | -15% |
SCCO
TKO.TO
FM.TO
0358.HK
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NEXA
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 766 | 12.54 | 7.60 | 9.54 | 25.86 | 31.00 | 147.2% | 70.6% | 63.1% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 129.7% | 78% | 76% | 15,280 | 2025-09-10 | 3Q26 | 2026-09-15 | 2% | 1% |
ATUS
DISH
CABO
CMCSA
43%
6758.T
CMCSA
LGF-A
DIS
29%
CMCSA
DIS
NFLX
28%
|
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 373 | 260.32 | 334.78 | 342.62 | 334.46 | 383.47 | 47.3% | -0.1% | -2.4% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 11.0% | — | — | 14,386 | 2025-07-16 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-11-15 | 3% | — |
CNI
CSX
AZJ.AX
CP
|
| eBay | GameStop | US | 474 | 104.07 | 104.57 | 104.57 | 113.04 | 125.00 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | — | 41% | 41% | 5,925 | 2026-05-02 | — | — | 1% | -25% |
4755.T
ETSY
BABA
SHOP.TO
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 288 | 61.73 | 61.04 | 64.89 | 70.02 | 71.85 | 16.4% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 83% | 66% | 4,068 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-09 | -2% | -10% |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 48 | 28.18 | 29.53 | 30.02 | 32.34 | 42.63 | 51.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 31.8% | 28.3% | 78.2% | 21% | 20% | 2,916 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | -0% | 5% |
PPG
RPM
SHW
|
| Allied Gold | Zijin Gold International | Canada | 28 | 41.75 | 28.79 | 30.02 | 29.64 | 44.00 | 5.4% | 2.9% | -1.3% | 48.4% | 48.4% | 2210.4% | 6% | — | 1,745 | 2026-01-23 | 3Q26 | 2026-07-29 | -3% | -7% |
AU
AEM
EVN.AX
NEM
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 23 | 22.20 | 22.57 | 23.50 | 24.86 | 35.00 | 57.7% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 40.8% | 40.8% | 127.3% | 18% | 12% | 1,721 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 3% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 9 | 181.60 | 357.33 | 357.33 | 324.40 | 342.03 | 76.1% | -10.2% | -10.2% | -1.4% | 9.6% | 15.4% | — | — | 937 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -2% | — |
TTI
FTI
SLB
NOV
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
18%
|
| AvalonBay Communities | Equity Residential | US | 168 | 174.28 | 193.51 | 198.14 | 190.79 | 191.01 | 9.6% | -1.4% | -3.9% | 0.1% | -0.2% | — | — | — | 779 | 2026-04-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -1% | — |
INVH
UDR
CPT
ESS
|
| Steadfast Group | Dragoneer | Australia | 10 | 3.95 | — | — | 5.26 | 6.00 | 51.9% | — | — | 14.1% | 14.1% | — | — | — | 654 | 2026-06-09 | — | — | — | — |
WTW
AON
MMC
AJG
|
| Steadfast Group | Amwins Group | Australia | 10 | 3.95 | — | — | 5.26 | 6.00 | 51.9% | — | — | 14.1% | 14.1% | — | — | — | 654 | 2026-06-09 | — | — | — | — |
WTW
AON
MMC
AJG
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 361 | 14.37 | 16.10 | 16.51 | 18.91 | 19.24 | 33.9% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 89% | 87% | 652 | 2025-10-31 | 2H26 | 2026-10-31 | 3% | — |
HLN
VTRS
PG
CL
42%
4911.T
EL
BEI.DE
PG
27%
ESSITY-A.ST
PG
JNJ
31%
|
| easyJet | Apollo | UK | 68 | 3.94 | — | — | 6.63 | 7.15 | 81.4% | — | — | 7.8% | 7.8% | — | — | — | 560 | 2026-05-28 | — | — | — | — |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| AES | Global Infrastructure Partners | US | 107 | 11.52 | 16.39 | 16.96 | 14.80 | 15.00 | 30.2% | -10.7% | -14.6% | 1.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | — | — | 524 | 2025-07-07 | 4Q26 | 2027-06-01 | 10% | — |
IDA
POR
EXC
DUK
|
| Essential Utilities | American Water | US | 87 | 41.21 | 44.02 | 46.07 | 38.87 | 39.95 | -3.0% | -13.3% | -18.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | — | — | 513 | 2025-10-24 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -1% | — |
SVT.L
UU.L
PNN.L
VIE.PA
54%
NFG
OGS
NJR
ATO
46%
|
| ARC Resources | Shell | Canada | 54 | 25.77 | 22.57 | 22.57 | 32.31 | 32.92 | 27.8% | 30.1% | 30.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 94% | 96% | 510 | 2026-04-24 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 3% | 5% |
DVN
COP
0883.HK
EOG
|
| Globalstar | Amazon | US | 87 | 68.53 | 86.50 | 88.91 | 79.92 | 83.70 | 22.1% | -8.2% | -11.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | — | — | 508 | 2026-04-01 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -3% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 34 | 51.09 | 47.36 | 50.74 | 63.58 | 70.00 | 37.0% | 25.5% | 20.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 72% | 67% | 504 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 1% | -3% | — |
| Silicon Laboratories | Texas Instruments | US | 67 | 136.62 | 211.15 | 221.80 | 217.63 | 231.00 | 69.1% | 3.0% | -1.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 33% | — | 467 | 2026-02-03 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -7% | 17% |
AMD
AVGO
QCOM
2454.TW
|