| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | COMPS | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 212 | 260.32 | 271.03 | 278.86 | 323.48 | 375.83 | 44.4% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 16.2% | 19.1% | 17.1% | 50% | 42% | 13,895 | 2025-07-16 | 2H27 | 2027-11-30 | 1% | 5% |
CNI
CSX
CP
601006.SS
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 278 | 61.73 | 65.64 | 69.48 | 62.21 | 64.02 | 3.7% | -5.5% | -11.7% | 2.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | — | — | 3,781 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | 0% | — |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Banco BPM | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 58 | 16.73 | 13.58 | 13.58 | 13.29 | 17.15 | 2.5% | -2.2% | -2.2% | 29.0% | 16.1% | 49.3% | — | — | 3,652 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | -3% | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
|
| Canadian Utilities | Emera | Canada | 43 | 51.20 | 52.24 | 52.24 | 49.14 | 56.91 | 11.1% | -6.3% | -6.3% | 15.8% | 18.3% | 15.3% | — | — | 1,740 | 2026-10-05 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 2% | — |
POR
IDA
EXC
DUK
45%
0384.HK
SR
9531.T
ATO
45%
EPD
TRGP
MPLX
TRP
10%
|
| Mediobanca | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 11 | 18.15 | 16.19 | 16.19 | 25.15 | 26.81 | 47.7% | 35.6% | 35.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 92.6% | 84% | 84% | 1,572 | 2026-02-17 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -4% | -3% |
UPST
SOFI
AFRM
OMF
40%
LPLA
STJ.L
RJF
SF
31%
EVR
MC
PJT
HLI
29%
|
| PTC | Schneider Electric | US | 682 | 144.03 | 153.61 | 153.61 | 193.06 | 205.00 | 42.3% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 77% | 77% | 1,369 | 2026-10-02 | 3Q27 | 3Q27 | 1% | -3% |
ADSK
SIE.DE
HEXA-B.ST
DSY.PA
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 41 | 51.09 | 78.94 | 81.84 | 47.60 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -65.8% | -71.9% | 47.1% | 47.1% | 399.5% | — | — | 1,293 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-01 | -0% | — |
ELV
MOH
601318.SS
LNC
100%
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 11 | 66.25 | 54.39 | 54.39 | 59.80 | 76.15 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 27.3% | 14.5% | 44.6% | 25% | 38% | 1,139 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | -3% | -6% |
STJ.L
LPLA
RJF
SF
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
KBC.BR
35%
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 63 | 170.16 | 185.94 | 201.52 | 262.13 | 318.90 | 87.4% | 29.1% | 23.1% | 21.7% | 22.1% | 67.8% | 57% | 51% | 1,048 | 2025-12-19 | 4Q26 | 2027-02-15 | 2% | -1% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | — | 181.60 | 279.03 | 279.03 | 336.00 | 347.07 | 91.1% | 17.0% | 17.0% | -3.3% | 9.9% | 11.9% | — | 63% | 1,042 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -3% | — |
TTI
FTI
BKR
SLB
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
NEXANS.PA
18%
|
| Roku | Fox | US | 212 | 119.64 | 97.85 | 103.71 | 155.54 | 159.27 | 33.1% | 37.1% | 33.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 94% | 90% | 846 | 2026-06-11 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -4% | 5% |
NFLX
FUBO
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 38 | 22.20 | 33.00 | 33.93 | 28.98 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -13.9% | -17.1% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 280.8% | — | — | 726 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 10% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
2609.TW
|
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals | Indivior Pharmaceuticals | US | 44 | 44.63 | 45.08 | 47.17 | 39.84 | 52.16 | 16.9% | -13.1% | -18.4% | 30.9% | 31.1% | 810.4% | — | — | 719 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-02 | 3% | — |
AZN
ABBV
NVS
BMY
|
| Globalstar | Amazon | US | 59 | 68.53 | 67.27 | 69.67 | 83.26 | 86.55 | 26.3% | 19.2% | 16.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 83% | 76% | 561 | 2026-04-01 | 2H27 | 2027-06-30 | 6% | -1% |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
TSAT
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 52 | 43.52 | 48.84 | 48.84 | 44.18 | 47.54 | 9.2% | -10.5% | -10.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 13.8% | — | — | 454 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | 0% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
TSAT
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 38 | 3.94 | 3.06 | 3.06 | 6.84 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 55.2% | 55.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 20.2% | 92% | 89% | 447 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -7% | -2% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 11 | 3.75 | 3.99 | 3.99 | 5.65 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 29.3% | 29.3% | 5.4% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 84% | 70% | 416 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 3% | -10% |
KHC
UL
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Fertitta Entertainment | US | 255 | 20.77 | 17.25 | 18.80 | 29.04 | 31.00 | 49.3% | 40.6% | 35.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 86% | 84% | 400 | 2026-02-25 | 2H27 | 2027-06-30 | 1% | -5% |
MGM
1128.HK
ENT.L
WYNN
71%
CHH
MAR
IHG.L
HLT
17%
KIND-SDB.ST
RSI
DKNG
GAMB
12%
|
| TXNM Energy | Troy ParentCo | US | 90 | 51.27 | 49.68 | 51.80 | 58.51 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 76% | 65% | 399 | 2025-03-04 | 1H27 | 2027-03-31 | 1% | 4% |
SO
FE
DUK
EXC
|
| Suzhou Jinfu Technology | Zhejiang Changfengce Enterprise Management | China | 13 | 4.40 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 4.11 | 6.20 | 40.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 687.4% | 10% | 10% | 398 | 2026-08-20 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -15% | — |
JBL
CLS.TO
FLEX
SANM
56%
300750.SZ
1211.HK
6752.T
373220.KS
32%
TER
KLAC
KEYS
6857.T
12%
|