| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 406 | 260.32 | 276.94 | 284.77 | 329.46 | 378.44 | 45.4% | 15.9% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 18.1% | 14.6% | 52% | 43% | 14,403 | 2025-07-16 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-11-30 | -10% | -4% |
CNI
CSX
CP
601006.SS
|
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 490 | 12.54 | 7.89 | 9.82 | 28.25 | 31.00 | 147.2% | 72.1% | 65.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 88% | 85% | 7,475 | 2025-09-10 | 3Q26 | 2027-05-15 | -2% | -2% |
ATUS
CHTR
CABO
CMCSA
43%
CMCSA
LGF-A
DIS
CIDM
29%
CMCSA
DIS
NFLX
28%
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 340 | 61.73 | 62.80 | 66.65 | 65.84 | 68.31 | 10.7% | 4.6% | -1.2% | 3.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 55% | — | 5,291 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | 1% | 2% |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 192 | 35.11 | 64.88 | 65.36 | 69.10 | 74.89 | 113.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 0.1% | — | 42% | 98% | 3,109 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | 6% | -27% |
SCCO
CSC.AX
FCX
0358.HK
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NYR.BR
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 51 | 28.18 | 28.39 | 28.88 | 35.78 | 46.14 | 63.7% | 20.7% | 19.3% | 28.9% | -4.4% | — | 42% | — | 2,871 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | 1% | -6% |
PPG
SHW
RPM
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 10 | 66.25 | 61.73 | 61.73 | 66.00 | 80.81 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 22.4% | 11.3% | 25.4% | 22% | 36% | 2,461 | 2026-08-18 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -1% | 1% |
STJ.L
LPLA
RJF
SF
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
KBC.BR
35%
|
| MGM Resorts International | People Incorporated (People Inc) | US | 77 | 43.67 | 48.06 | 48.06 | 41.22 | 48.30 | 10.6% | -16.6% | -16.6% | 17.2% | 17.2% | — | — | — | 2,127 | 2026-05-29 | — | — | -10% | — |
1128.HK
WYNN
ENT.L
PENN
54%
CHH
MAR
IHG.L
HLT
46%
|
| eBay | GameStop | US | 478 | 104.07 | 107.83 | 107.83 | 103.41 | 107.64 | 3.4% | -4.3% | -4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | — | — | — | 1,971 | 2026-05-01 | — | — | -7% | — |
4755.T
ETSY
BABA
SHOP.TO
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 39 | 51.09 | 80.41 | 83.30 | 53.58 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -50.1% | -55.5% | 30.6% | 30.6% | 120.3% | — | — | 1,307 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-06 | -3% | — |
ELV
MOH
601318.SS
LNC
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 8 | 181.60 | 364.42 | 364.42 | 326.40 | 336.45 | 85.3% | -11.6% | -11.6% | -3.7% | 10.1% | 10.5% | — | — | 1,116 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 2% | — |
TTI
FTI
BKR
SLB
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
18%
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 25 | 22.20 | 34.79 | 35.73 | 28.58 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -21.7% | -25.0% | 22.5% | 25.5% | 129.5% | — | — | 1,077 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | — | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
|
| Arcadis | WSP Global | Netherlands | 8 | 35.32 | 31.92 | 31.92 | 44.42 | 53.21 | 50.6% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 19.8% | 19.8% | — | 59% | 59% | 1,044 | 2026-07-22 | — | — | -5% | -5% |
ACM
KBR
J
TTEK
|
| Cleanaway Waste Management | EQT Infrastructure | Australia | 28 | 2.37 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.60 | 3.13 | 32.1% | 18.7% | 18.7% | 20.4% | 20.4% | — | 48% | 48% | 1,031 | 2026-08-12 | — | — | -9% | 15% |
WM
2151.T
CWST
GFL
70%
CLH
15%
GFL
PESI
RSG
CLH
15%
|
| Segro | Prologis | UK | 48 | 7.42 | 6.17 | 6.17 | 9.50 | 9.35 | 26.0% | 35.1% | 35.1% | -1.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | — | 88% | 818 | 2026-06-23 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -1% | — |
REXR
FR
STAG
GMG.AX
|
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals | Indivior Pharmaceuticals | US | 23 | 44.63 | 47.95 | 50.05 | 43.53 | 53.81 | 20.6% | -10.2% | -15.0% | 23.6% | -5.6% | — | — | — | 738 | 2026-07-31 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 6% | — |
AZN
ABBV
NVS
4502.T
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 40 | 43.52 | 40.38 | 40.38 | 47.21 | 52.70 | 21.1% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 17.3% | 55% | 50% | 720 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | -15% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 87 | 170.16 | 123.94 | 139.52 | 275.17 | 309.76 | 82.0% | 55.0% | 49.3% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 29.3% | 81% | 79% | 693 | 2025-12-19 | 2H26 | 2027-02-15 | -4% | -8% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 48 | 3.94 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 6.70 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 62.4% | 62.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 19.4% | 90% | 88% | 630 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | — | -4% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 375 | 14.37 | 16.62 | 17.03 | 18.74 | 18.85 | 31.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 95% | 86% | 618 | 2025-10-31 | 2H26 | 2026-12-31 | -1% | — |
HLN
VTRS
CL
PG
42%
4911.T
BEI.DE
OR.PA
PG
27%
ESSITY-A.ST
PG
UL
31%
|
| Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Intesa Sanpaolo | Italy | 130 | 8.95 | 8.64 | 8.64 | 11.61 | 11.78 | 31.6% | 25.6% | 25.6% | 1.4% | -0.7% | — | 95% | — | 587 | 2026-06-05 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 1% | 7% |
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
|