| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Gross spread, 1W Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 241 | 260.32 | 328.81 | 336.67 | 345.68 | 395.82 | 52.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 25% | 13% | 13,433 | 2025-07-16 | 2H27 | 2027-11-30 | -0% | — | -8% |
CNI
CSX
CP
9020.T
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 302 | 61.73 | 67.04 | 70.88 | 67.72 | 69.61 | 12.8% | 1.0% | -4.7% | 2.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 26% | — | 3,909 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | 1% | — | — |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
|
| Banco BPM | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 55 | 16.73 | 15.04 | 15.04 | 13.30 | 17.05 | 1.9% | -13.1% | -13.1% | 28.2% | 15.0% | 52.7% | — | — | 3,409 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | 1% | — | — |
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
|
| Instacart | DoorDash | US | 769 | 51.68 | 48.87 | 52.63 | 57.59 | 65.00 | 25.8% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 5.6% | 54% | 40% | 1,726 | 2026-10-22 | 1H28 | 1H28 | -2% | — | — |
TTD
PUBM
MGNI
TBLA
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 39 | 51.09 | 56.13 | 59.03 | 43.55 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -28.9% | -35.5% | 60.7% | 60.7% | 791.7% | — | — | 1,527 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-01 | 1% | — | — |
601318.SS
ELV
FFH
LNC
MOH
100%
|
| PTC | Schneider Electric | US | 314 | 144.03 | 160.00 | 160.00 | 194.31 | 205.00 | 42.3% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 76% | 76% | 1,226 | 2026-10-02 | 3Q27 | 3Q27 | 3% | — | -1% |
DSY.PA
ADSK
HEXA-B.ST
SIE.DE
|
| Mediobanca | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 22 | 18.15 | 17.07 | 17.07 | 25.42 | 26.65 | 46.8% | 32.8% | 32.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 150.5% | 87% | 87% | 1,144 | 2026-02-17 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 4% | — | 0% |
UPST
SOFI
AFRM
OMF
40%
RJF
SCHW
LPLA
STJ.L
31%
EVR
LAZ
MC
PJT
29%
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 10 | 66.25 | 57.85 | 57.85 | 59.50 | 75.69 | 14.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 27.2% | 14.2% | 49.7% | 9% | 16% | 1,102 | 2026-08-18 | 2027-02-15 | 2027-02-15 | -1% | — | -1% |
RJF
SCHW
LPLA
STJ.L
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
MTB
35%
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 175 | 170.16 | 197.76 | 217.15 | 258.51 | 328.52 | 93.1% | 23.5% | 16.0% | 27.1% | 27.5% | 96.5% | 46% | 37% | 1,033 | 2025-12-19 | 4Q26 | 2027-02-15 | 3% | — | -17% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 10 | 181.60 | 248.87 | 248.87 | 313.60 | 322.82 | 77.8% | 20.6% | 20.6% | -4.1% | 9.8% | 12.4% | — | 68% | 988 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -3% | — | — |
HAL
SLB
BKR
NOV
82%
FTI
PRYSMIAN.MI
NKT.CO
NEXANS.PA
18%
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 31 | 22.20 | 29.76 | 30.69 | 28.35 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -5.0% | -8.3% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 713.5% | — | — | 801 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 11% | — | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
2609.TW
|
| Canadian Utilities | Emera | Canada | 38 | 51.20 | 55.73 | 57.58 | 51.43 | 52.80 | 3.1% | -8.4% | -12.0% | 2.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | — | — | 648 | 2026-10-05 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 1% | — | — |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
45%
ATO
OGS
SR
IG.MI
45%
PAA
MPLX
KMI
EPD
10%
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 23 | 43.52 | 37.33 | 37.33 | 43.74 | 47.83 | 9.9% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 17.2% | 61% | 56% | 531 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | -1% | — | — |
VSAT
SESG.PA
ETL.PA
TSAT
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 51 | 3.94 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 6.80 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 51.5% | 51.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 25.2% | 91% | 88% | 489 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | 11% | — | -4% |
LUV
RYAAY
JBLU
86%
BKNG
TCOM
EXPE
TRIP
14%
|
| Roku | Fox | US | 527 | 119.64 | 89.33 | 95.18 | 155.52 | 156.83 | 31.1% | 42.6% | 38.8% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 98% | 95% | 463 | 2026-06-11 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -2% | — | — |
NFLX
FUBO
|
| Suzhou Jinfu Technology | Zhejiang Changfengce Enterprise Management | China | 14 | 4.40 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.81 | 6.20 | 40.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 62.7% | 62.7% | 1908.0% | 6% | 6% | 457 | 2026-08-20 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 0% | — | -12% |
2354.TW
FLEX
JBL
CLS.TO
56%
300750.SZ
1211.HK
6752.T
373220.KS
32%
6857.T
KEYS
TER
KLAC
12%
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 5 | 3.75 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 5.63 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 25.8% | 25.8% | 5.6% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 82% | 67% | 425 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 1% | — | -12% |
KHC
UL
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Fertitta Entertainment | US | 199 | 20.77 | 18.66 | 20.21 | 28.99 | 31.00 | 49.3% | 35.6% | 30.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 84% | 81% | 410 | 2026-02-25 | 2H27 | 2027-06-30 | 6% | — | -1% |
LVS
MGM
WYNN
PENN
71%
MAR
HLT
IHG.L
H
17%
DKNG
KIND-SDB.ST
888.L
GAMB
12%
|
| TXNM Energy | Troy ParentCo | US | 59 | 51.27 | 57.19 | 59.43 | 58.70 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 2.6% | -1.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 37% | — | 358 | 2025-03-04 | 1H27 | 2027-05-31 | -1% | — | -30% |
FE
POR
GNE
DUK
|
| Essential Utilities | American Water | US | 103 | 41.21 | 36.93 | 38.97 | 44.44 | 44.97 | 9.1% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 93% | 81% | 356 | 2025-10-24 | 1Q27 | 2027-03-31 | -2% | — | 10% |
PNN.L
CWT
0371.HK
VIE.PA
54%
ATO
OGS
SR
IG.MI
46%
|